Promoting the Development and Progress of Human Civilization through Exchange and Mutual Learning (Part 2)
Chapter 2: The Dilemmas Facing the Development of Human Civilization
In today’s piece, we are briefing you on the Chapter 2 of our report, “Promoting the Development and Progress of Human Civilization through Exchange and Mutual Learning.” We would love to answer any questions you might have so make sure to drop a like, comment, and subscribe for more!
At present, the challenges faced by human society are ultimately challenges to the development of civilization. In the present era, despite prominent achievements in economy, science and Technology, and culture, humanity faces an interwoven and changing array of new global issues and complex contradictions. These include economic stagnation, increasing political instability, and frequent cultural conflicts, plunging human civilization into palpable dilemmas. Once again, human civilization finds itself standing at a critical crossroads.
Economic Stagnation: Undermining the Momentum for the Progress of Civilization
Economic development serves as the driving force behind the progress of civilization. Currently, the global economic recovery is sluggish, with insufficient momentum, pronounced distribution imbalances, and numerous emerging risks and challenges. These factors have dampened the drive for progress, casting a shadow over humanity's future.
• Global Economic Challenges and Structural Contradictions
The momentum of global economic development has weakened, with prominent deep-seated structural contradictions. Since the 2008 financial crisis, and especially after the COVID-19 pandemic, global economic conditions have remained sluggish, with weak market demand and declining manufacturing activity. The World Economic Outlook report released by the International Monetary Fund in January 2025 projects global economic growth of 3.3 percent for both 2025 and 2026, below the historical average of 3.7 percent (2000–2019). While the medium-term baseline risks are tilted to the downside, the short-term outlook is characterized by varying risks.
To exacerbate matters, structural contradictions and divergent characteristics in areas such as consumption, employment, and inflation have become more evident, further dragging down global economic growth. These issues have also led to social unrest, environmental pressures, and technological divides, among other problems. These interwoven issues have exacerbated conflicts and antagonisms between countries, hindering the depth and breadth of cultural development and exchange among civilizations.
• Global Economic Imbalances and Growing Wealth Disparities
Global economic development is becoming increasingly imbalanced, with widening wealth disparities. In the wave of globalization, economies have become interdependent and interconnected, forming a complex and tightly- knit network. However, this network is not always harmonious or balanced, and global economic imbalances have become increasingly pronounced. Researches show that the global wealth gap has not narrowed but widened, with 60 percent of the world's population becoming poorer— equivalent to nearly 5 billion people growing poorer. According to World Bank data, approximately 700 million people worldwide live in extreme poverty, surviving on less than $2.15 a day, while around 3.5 billion people live in moderate poverty, with daily expenses below $6.85.
The growing economic disparity leads to the imbalanced development of civilizations. Against the backdrop of widening wealth gaps, some countries, leveraging their strong economic foundations and technological advantages, have taken a leading position in the development of civilizations, with their languages, lifestyles, and values gaining global influence. In contrast, many developing countries, due to insufficient economic strength, often find their cultures marginalized.
• Global Economic Challenges and Increasing Unpredictability
Global economic development is fraught with risks, challenges, and growing unpredictability. In recent years, profound changes in the global economic landscape, combined with international political instability, frequent natural disasters, and prolonged pandemic influences, have significantly increased economic unpredictability. This is evident in the vulnerability of global supply chains, heightened inflationary pressures, increased volatility in energy and resource prices, rising trade protectionism, greater financial market volatility, and mounting debt pressures in emerging markets.
In January 2025, Ms. Kristalina Georgieva, International Monetary Fund Managing Director, stated that the economic policies of the new U.S. administration, particularly its trade policies, will bring greater uncertainty to the global economy in 2025.
Looking ahead, the stability of global economic development still faces multiple challenges and shocks. The lack of a sense of security not only undermines collective actions for mutual support to overcome difficulties but also significantly weakens the impetus for exchange and mutual learning among civilizations.
Political Instability: Threatening the Foundation of the Development of Civilizations
A stable and open political environment serves as the foundation for the development of civilizations. It creates conditions for the exchange and mutual learning between different civilizations. Conversely, a turbulent political environment not only disrupts social stability but also hinders interaction and integration between civilizations, leading to cultural decline and stagnation in development. “Today, peace and development have become the prevailing trend, but the world is far from tranquil. War is the sword of Damocles that still hangs over mankind.”
•Evasion of Responsibility and Disruption of Global Governance by Certain Major Powers In the context of increasingly complex global issues and surging challenges, global governance platforms are frequently being "instrumentalized" or even "weaponized," significantly diminishing their effectiveness. Multilateral mechanisms are under strain, and the logic of global governance is undergoing a "negative shift," increasingly lagging behind contemporary demands and even failing in some areas. Meanwhile, certain major powers, driven by self-interest, are pursuing unilateralism and protectionism, neglecting or evading their responsibilities in global governance. They exacerbate international confrontations and divisions through economic sanctions and military interventions, severely undermining the multilateral international order centered on the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, dragging the world into a vortex of disorder.
The irresponsible actions of certain major powers have disrupted channels of exchange among civilizations, hindered the openness and dialogue among different civilizations, weakened confidence in global cooperation, and eroded the foundation of mutual learning. Consequently, establishing a community based on cultural trust and shared values has become increasingly difficult.
• Ongoing Regional Conflicts and Local Wars, Frequent Global Geopolitical Crises
"Everywhere we look, peace is under siege." Currently, regional conflicts and local wars are flaring up one after another, with the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the situation in the Middle East continuously causing spillover effects. Many people are suffering from the ravages of war, and maintaining world peace remains an arduous task.
According to a report released by the non-governmental organization "Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project," global political violence incidents increased by 25 percent in 2024 compared to 2023, with one in eight people worldwide facing conflict and over 220,000 people losing their lives. The British think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies reports that the intensity and lethality of armed violence are also on the rise, with a 37 percent increase in deaths and an approximately 17 percent increase in the overall mortality rate per incident year-on-year.
In the New Agenda for Peace, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres highlighted that the world faces risks such as the changing nature of armed conflict, persistent violence beyond conventional warfare, and the weaponization of new technologies. Continuing regional conflicts and local wars disrupt social stability, deplete resources, create humanitarian crises, and pose the potential risk of humanity falling back into war, casting a shadow over the future of human civilization.
• The Rise of Terrorism Threats Challenges Global Security Order
Currently, the geopolitical distribution of terrorism is undergoing significant changes, no longer confined to a few countries or specific regions but spreading rapidly worldwide. Terrorist attacks are occurring frequently, with violence and extremist ideologies proliferating through information technology, posing severe challenges to global security.
According to the 2024 Global Terrorism Index released by the Institute for Economics and Peace, an Australian think tank, terrorism remains a serious global threat. As of 2023, the number of deaths caused by terrorism increased by 22 percent, reaching 8, 352—the highest level since 2017.
The expansion of terrorism disrupts the safety and stability of human society, obstructs normal exchanges and cooperation between civilizations, and poses a significant threat to cultural diversity and the inclusivity of values. As a result, the foundation for global exchange and mutual learning among civilizations is becoming increasingly fragile.
• Growing Non-Traditional Security Risks Threaten Human Survival
Beyond traditional security, non-traditional security risks are increasingly extending into various fields, including economy, technology, finance, culture, society, and the environment, characterized by intensified confrontations and rising conflicts. Energy crises, food crises, and public health crises continue to escalate, weakening basic survival guarantees and limiting sustainable development. Cyberattacks and information leaks erode the foundation of trust and cooperation, hindering technological progress and exchange among civilizations. Environmental pollution and global warming damage the living environment, threatening the shared home of humanity. These risks greatly impede trends of global multi-polarity, economic globalization, IT application, and cultural diversity.
In this era of globalized risks, any security hazard in one field can transform from a single risk into a compound crisis, with local issues spreading globally, creating interactive shocks among nations. If human civilization cannot strengthen cooperation and coordination, it will be challenging to achieve common development and progress in an era with shared risks.
Global Cultural Conflicts: Disrupting the Consensus on the Values of Civilizations
Globalization has facilitated cultural exchange around the world, yet in the convergence and clash of civilizations, value conflicts persist. The threat to cultural diversity looms large as protectionist, isolationist, and populist ideologies continue to rise. Human society faces the threat of ideological fragmentation and the difficulty of building consensus.
• Persistent Value Conflicts: The Resurfacing of "Civilization Superiority" and "Clash of Civilizations"
Some countries, long holding their cultural values as the standard, belittle or even interfere with other cultures. They attempt to alter the social structures and ideologies of other nations through cultural sanctions, infiltration, and other coercive or subtle means. This hegemonic "cultural export" not only erodes the cultural independence and continuity of the targeted nations, but also hampers the basic avenues of mutual understanding and communication, erecting barriers to international dialogue.
• Cultural Diversity Under Threat and Global Civilizations Facing the "Standardization" Trap
As globalization advances, every civilization or nation is swept into the world current, unable to forge ahead alone. The collision and fusion of different cultures and values should ideally drive human progress. However, the invasion of dominant cultures has eroded the cultural identities of many nations and ethnic groups, leading to phenomena like cultural nihilism. In the modernization process, subordinate cultures are gradually assimilated or marginalized, turning the exchange and mutual learning of civilizations into mere replication.
In this process, some countries and ethnic groups have lost their cultural subjectivity, making it challenging for them to find development paths that suit their unique national conditions. Consequently, their development lags, unrest occurs frequently, and the survival of their civilizations faces significant challenges. This impacts the diversity of world cultures and increases the risk of global civilization falling into the trap of "standardization."
• The Rise of Anti-Globalization: Undermining the Dialogue among Civilizations In recent years, this anti-globalization sentiment has spread beyond politics and economics, extending into the cultural sphere. The superposition of diverse and multi-dimensional differences and conflicts has led to increasingly intense cultural competition and conflicts. The resurgence of protectionism, isolationism, and populism has disrupted and even dismantled global cultural cooperation mechanisms, exacerbating misunderstandings, alienation, and hostility between different cultures.
To ensure the inheritance, innovation, and development of civilization, it is crucial to maintain an open and inclusive attitude. Perceiving differences of civilizations as threats and becoming adversarial due to these differences creates "isolated zones" in inter-civilization exchanges, exacerbates conflicts, undermines shared values, and impedes the progress and development of civilizations.
Chapter 3&4: To be Continued…